Cal Poly
Men - Women
2012 - 2013 - 2014
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RankNameGradeRating
96  Sean Davidson SR 31:50
102  Chris Frias SR 31:51
184  Mitchell Moriarty JR 32:11
576  Dimitri Voytilla FR 33:08
611  Tyler Huntley SO 33:12
760  Clayton Hutchins FR 33:29
849  Kyle Lynch SO 33:37
1,262  Riess Haslam FR 34:13
1,274  David Galvez FR 34:13
1,333  Nick Woolf FR 34:18
1,582  Jeff Miles SO 34:39
National Rank #40 of 311
West Region Rank #7 of 32
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 0.5%
Most Likely Finish 8th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 0.1%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 12.1%
Top 10 in Regional 96.2%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Sean Davidson Chris Frias Mitchell Moriarty Dimitri Voytilla Tyler Huntley Clayton Hutchins Kyle Lynch Riess Haslam David Galvez Nick Woolf Jeff Miles
Sacremento State Inter-Regional Jamboree 10/04 803 31:50 31:58 32:27 33:20 33:07 33:59 33:27 34:19 34:12 34:38
Pre-National Invitational (Blue) 10/19 690 31:26 31:51 32:07 33:10 34:14 33:20 33:00
Big West Championships 11/02 711 32:01 31:46 31:50 33:10 32:59 33:19 34:10 34:04 34:18
West Region Championships 11/15 726 32:04 31:32 32:14 32:57 32:58 33:22 33:58
NCAA Championship 11/23 32:00





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 0.5% 25.2 575 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Region Championship 100% 7.6 227 0.0 0.2 3.0 8.8 14.8 18.6 21.4 19.1 10.2 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sean Davidson 31.8% 85.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
Chris Frias 26.8% 79.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
Mitchell Moriarty 2.0% 109.8
Dimitri Voytilla 0.5% 220.5
Tyler Huntley 0.5% 219.5
Clayton Hutchins 0.5% 234.2
Kyle Lynch 0.5% 245.3


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Sean Davidson 15.9 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.7 3.6 4.6 4.9 4.8 5.1 4.7 4.7 4.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.0 2.6 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.1 2.1
Chris Frias 16.3 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 2.5 3.4 4.4 5.2 4.5 4.8 4.4 4.8 5.3 3.5 4.0 3.5 3.3 3.2 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.3 1.7
Mitchell Moriarty 29.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.4 1.7 1.7 2.2 2.3 2.6 3.3 2.7 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.2 3.4
Dimitri Voytilla 75.4
Tyler Huntley 78.3
Clayton Hutchins 91.4
Kyle Lynch 98.1




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 0.0% 100.0% 0.0 0.0 2
3 0.2% 40.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 3
4 3.0% 10.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.7 0.3 4
5 8.8% 0.2% 0.0 8.8 0.0 5
6 14.8% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.8 0.1 6
7 18.6% 18.6 7
8 21.4% 21.4 8
9 19.1% 19.1 9
10 10.2% 10.2 10
11 2.7% 2.7 11
12 0.9% 0.9 12
13 0.2% 0.2 13
14 0.0% 0.0 14
15 0.0% 0.0 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
Total 100% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 99.5 0.0 0.5




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Florida State 67.8% 1.0 0.7
Duke 1.2% 1.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 1.2% 1.0 0.0
Lamar 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Penn State 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Lipscomb 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Kansas 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.7
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 3.0